Do Your “Own” CoViD19 Research?

Many, many studies have demonstrated that vaccinated people are less likely to get so sick from coronavirus disease that they die or require hospitalization. We hope this point has been so exhaustively proven that it does not require extensive proof here, but still it is interesting to consider the variety of sources on this point in early CoViD publications.

This parade of graphs illustrates that the protection is observed in place after place.
CoViD hospitalization rates by vaccination status:

CoViD death rates by vaccination status:

Please select another common point of CoViD confusion, below.

This topic is slightly more complicated, but important to many CoViD vaccine conversations.
CoViD19 vaccines were developed primarily to protect against serious coronavirus disease. Studies find that they are highly effective in that regard. Many studies have also found that, for some period of time after vaccination, vaccinated populations experience SARS-CoV2 infection at a lower rate than comparable UNvaccinated populations.

Some scientists have called that protection against infection a desirable, temporary side effect of CoViD vaccines. Just to emphasize: protection against severe disease is the primary goal of CoViD19 vaccines. Partial protection against some infections is a real and fortunate side effect. That seems like a constructive way to think about this topic.

A person can still get infected with SARS-CoV2 after vaccination, but many vaccinated individuals are spared from getting an infection that they would have gotten without their vaccines. Inevitably, those who were protected from an infection will never know they were spared. The only way to detect that protection is through careful population-level counting and math.

The level of vaccine protection against infection depends on many things including time since last vaccination, variant of encountered coronavirus, and other factors.

This parade of reports just illustrates that the phenomenon has been observed in place after place.

This collection of reports that document reduction in CoViD19 transmission was taken from Dr. Dan Wilson’s video notes here:

• Vaccination with BNT162b2 reduces transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts in Israel
• Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 transmission to household contacts during dominance of Delta variant (B.1.617.2), the Netherlands
• Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 transmission to household contacts during dominance of Delta variant (B.1.617.2), the Netherlands, August to September 2021
• Virological and serological kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant vaccine breakthrough infections: a multicentre cohort study
• Transmission and Infectious SARS-CoV-2 Shedding Kinetics in Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Individuals
• Infectious viral load in unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals infected with ancestral, Delta or Omicron SARS-CoV-2

Another recent study tracked prisoners (red, below) and prison guards (blue) whose vaccination and infection statuses could be very closely monitored. The original paper is here. In each section of this figure, trends move down (more vaccine doses) and to the right (stronger protection against infection). We just adapted these figures by adding the lines to connect the points within treatment groups.

This is one of many studies also showing that, whether or not individuals had a prior CoViD infection (the 3 main sections of the table), vaccines still provided further measurable protection against viral infection.

Select another common point of CoViD confusion, below.

CoViD19 is different than influenza in many important ways, which have been documented extensively. These are just some short (tweet-length) examples.

1) Direct comparison of outcomes in CoViD19 vs flu patients in one large study:

2) CoViD + history of cancer = worse outcomes (compared to flu):

3) Second and third CoViD infections can be progressively more injurious:

Select another common point of CoViD confusion above or below.

Some people argue that CoViD19 is mild for most people, therefore precautions against infection and circulation are overbearing and/or foolish. That logic is worth evaluating in a broader context. For example, 90% of poliovirus infections were also mild, but ~1% of them were debilitating or fatal — much like CoViD19. Making public policy based on the exuberant voices of those in the 90% would be irresponsible from some perspectives that also matter. We’re in this together. Together we have to optimize the balance of consideration and caution.

It’s not crazy that leaders pause to take CoViD19 seriously, since it arose suddenly and it’s killing their constituents on a substantial scale.
• CoViD19 was the leading cause of death among law enforcement officers in 2021.

• CoViD19 has been the leading cause of death in the US at several points in the pandemic, occasionally surpassing cancer and heart disease (pink line, below).

We don’t know how the SARS-CoV2 virus may evolve going forward, and the pandemic is not over (see Excess Mortality video, above).

Select another common point of CoViD confusion, above or below.

CoViD-era antivaccine activism has set back progress in public health administration, healthcare, and the economy. Just a few notable examples:

“COVID ‘boosted’ anti-vaccine propaganda. Now measles and other childhood diseases are on the march.” (LA Times)

“Delta-Phase CoViD-19 Quadrupled Stillbirth Rate. So, what’s the “pro” choice on vaccines?” (Vaccinated.US blog)

“COVID-19 Vaccine Misinformation and Disinformation Costs an Estimated $50 to $300 Million Each Day” (Kaiser Family Foundation)

“Unvaccinated COVID-19 hospitalizations cost billions of dollars” (Kaiser Family Foundation)

“The effect of political identity, conspiracist ideation and presidential tweets on vaccine hesitancy.” (Journal of Experimental Social Psychology)

“The misinformed are less likely to get vaccinated.” (Axios-Ipsos poll)

Thomas Jefferson wrote “wherever the people are well informed they can be trusted with their own government.” If he was right, we all have a stake in helping each other to be “well-informed.” While we’re working that out, it seems important to consider the possibility that “research” means something different than “your own research” to a lot of people. What’s the difference?

Traditionally “research” works to optimize control groups, sample sizes, and experimental conditions to discern patterns in complex situations. Sometimes it produces troves of information like the diverse, complex collection of 735,779 different papers/reports in WHO’s COVID-19 Research Database. By contrast, I’m getting a sense that “your own research” gives permission to ignore any subset of those studies that contradict certain cherished ideas. People who talk about their “own” research seem to have an affinity for thoroughly debunked research. Why might this be?

Science proceeds by attempting to falsify and stress test its models of reality in order to find weak links — so that the understanding can be refined and strengthened over time. Pseudoscience often proceeds by denying, ignoring, and obscuring observations that challenge cherished ideas, so that those ideas might seem strong to adherents.

None of us asked for a health-destroying viral pandemic, but that’s what we got. We are fortunate to have each other’s company while we sort this out. Let’s pull together.

Maybe. In the most literal sense of that phrase, maybe it is.

If art speaks, perhaps this virtue is just worth putting out there. Planting the flag. There’s too much vaccine disinformation in today’s public discourse. Too much obfuscating good science and elevating bad. We hope this art can be a small symbol of reason around the world, raise a visible presence of vaccine reason, and make a small contribution to rebalancing the ratio of vaccine gratitude to vaccine hostility.

At the time of this writing we’ve sent clothing to spike fashionistas in 18 countries and 47 states. Join the flashmob?